Wetter winter favored across the southern U.S. as NOAA expects a very strong El Niño to shift the jet stream south

Federal forecasters expect this winter's very strong El Niño to tilt the odds toward a stormier, wetter season across the southern United States, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook NOAA released Thursday, Oct. 15.

The outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. It gives the chances of above-, near- or below-average temperature and precipitation, not a forecast for any single storm, and it does not try to predict snowfall totals.

"A very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S.," said Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service.

Rain and drought

Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely along a southern band of the country that runs from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast, NOAA said.

The agency's drought outlook, which runs from Oct. 15 through January, calls for drought to improve or end in the Southern Great Plains, the Southwest, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Drought is favored to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

Graham also cautioned that heavy rain falling on dry ground can lead to flash flooding, and said communities and families should prepare now for the season ahead.

Temperatures

Warmer-than-average weather is favored in Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. Near-normal temperatures are most likely in parts of the Southeast, including Florida, and much of the Southwest has equal chances of a warm, cold or near-normal winter. The release does not single out Texas in its temperature outlook.

What else is new

The National Weather Service said it will use "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording in some blizzard and ice storm warnings this season, and that its Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is now operational. NOAA updates the three-month outlook monthly, with the next update set for Nov. 19.

Sources

noaa.gov